Buy Dubya at 0.534, Sell Kerry at 0.466

As mentioned in the prior "Going Long" on Shares of UCB weblog entry, the University of Iowa maintains a simulated but fairly accurate futures market on the expected outcome of the upcoming Presidential Election (link here). The morning after Cheney's pointed attack of Kerry during the Republican National Convention, it appears the spread between Bush and Kerry in the Iowa market is widening in Bush's favor. Dubya is now trading at 0.534 and Kerry is at 0.466. Translation, the markets are forecasting a 53.4%/46.6% outcome with the Bush/Cheney ticket winning reelection. This may change with the anticipated barrage of anti-Bush commercials about to be broadcast by pro-Kerry 527 groups.